"If money isn't loosened up, this sucker could go down" - George W. Bush warned in September 2008

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Really great links - EU - China - Austrian vs Minsky story

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Has Germany just killed the dream of a European superstate? - "Let me be clear. I do not blame Greece, Ireland, Italy, or Spain for what has happened. No central bank could have tried more heroically than the Banco d’EspaƱa to counter the effects of negative real interest rates, but the macro-policy error of monetary union washed over its efforts."

Nick Rowe - ""Blame China" is not necessarily the lesson to be drawn here. It is quite understandable that some countries might legitimately want or need to accumulate international reserves. "Blame the international reserve system" seems a more appropriate lesson.
For example, if China allowed the US to accumulate yuan, the US Fed could hold yuan reserves, just as China holds dollar reserves. Then, if China wanted to increase its dollar reserves but the US didn't want to increase its liabilities to China, then China could accumulate dollars, and the US Fed could accumulate an equal value of yuan.
Perhaps, if we want to blame China for something, we should not blame it for buying dollars. We should blame it for not allowing the US to buy yuan."

Arnold Kling - Austrian vs Minsky story - "In the Austrian view, misleading signals are created by low interest rates set by the central bank. In the Minsky view, misleading signals are endogenous to the financial process. I think that the Minsky story has merit."

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